Table of Contents
- Colophon
- Key Findings
- Executive Summary
- 1. Introduction
- 2. Economic and Policy Background
- 3. Technical Discussion on CGE Modelling Set Up
- 4. The Policy Options Considered
- 5. Results
- 6. FDI Barriers
- 7. Conclusions
- 8. References
- Annex 1: Mapping of model sectors
- Annex 2: CGE model technical overview
- Annex 3: High tariff sectors, ranked by HS2 applied tariff rates
- Annex 4: Derivation of foreign investment income equation
- Figure 1 EU trade in goods with the US by sector (in million euros), 2011
- Figure 2 The bilateral composition of trade in projected benchmark (2027)
- Figure 3 EU27 outward stocks of FDI, 2010
- Figure 4 Top ten hosts of EU outward FDI stocks, 2010 (in 1000 million euros)
- Figure 5 Top ten sources of EU inward FDI stocks, 2010 (in 1000 million euros)
- Figure 6 US outward and inward FDI to the EU and the rest of the World, 2010 (in 1000 million euros)
- Figure 7 EU’s direct investment flows to the US, 2004-2011
- Figure 8 EU’s direct investment flows from the US, 2004-2011
- Figure 9 Trade Weighted Applied (MFN) average tariff rates 2007
- Figure 10 Value added and impact rankings
- Figure 11 Decomposition of EU output changes, ambitious scenario
- Figure 12 Average Value of NTM Indexes for FDI
- Figure 13 Average NTM index values for FDI located in the EU
- Figure 14 Breakdown of NTBs for FDI by sector
- Figure 15 Income from FDI, market size, and openness, 2007-2009
- Figure 3 Representative nested production technology
- Figure 4 Representative household demand
- Summary of Macroeconomic Effect
- Table 1 Perceived NTB index by business (index between 0-100)
- Table 2 Total trade cost estimates from NTB reduction in per cent, Ecorys (2009)
- Table 3 Sectors and regions used in the CGE model
- Table 4 Scenario Summaries
- Table 5 Impact ranking indexes
- Table 6 Changes in GDP (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 7 Changes in GDP (in million euros), 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 8 Changes in trade (in per cent), extra-EU trade for the EU, 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 9 Changes in trade (in million euros), extra-EU trade in case of the EU, 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 10 Changes in EU bilateral exports to US by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 11 Changes in US bilateral exports to EU by sector, 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 12 Changes in EU trade by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 13 Changes in US trade by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 14 Changes in EU output by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 15 Changes in US output by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, limited agreement, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 16 Changes in GDP (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 17 Changes in GDP (in million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 18 Household disposable income, million euro, 2027 benchmark
- Table 19 Changes in bilateral exports to the partner country (in per cent and million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 20 Changes in value of total exports (in per cent and million euros), extra-EU exports in case of the EU, 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 21 Changes in value of total imports (in per cent and million euros), extra-EU imports in case of the EU, 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 22 Changes in terms of trade (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 23 Change in EU tariff revenue (in million euros), 2027 benchmark
- Table 24 Trade diverted from intra-EU trade (in million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs, ambitious experiment
- Table 25 Change in EU exports to non-US, extra-EU destinations (in million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs, ambitious experiment
- Table 26 Change in EU imports from non-US extra-EU sources (in million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs, ambitious experiment
- Table 27 Changes in EU output by sector (in per cent). 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 28 Changes in US output by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 29 Changes in extra-EU exports and imports by sector (in per cent and million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 30 Changes in US exports and imports by sector (in per cent and million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs.
- Table 31 Changes in bilateral exports from the EU to the US by sector (in per cent and million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 32 Changes in bilateral exports from the US to the EU by sector (in per cent and million euros), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 33 Changes in wages for less and more skilled labour, total effects (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 34 Change in more skilled employment in the EU by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, ambitious scenario, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 35 Change in more skilled employment in the US by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, ambitious scenario
- Table 36 Change in less skilled employment in the EU by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, ambitious scenario
- Table 37 Change in less skilled employment in the US by sector (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, ambitious scenario
- Table 38 Displacement of less and more skilled labour in the EU and US, total effects (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 39 Changes in CO2-emissions (in thousand metric tons), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 40 Changes in land use (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 41 Total effects on GDP for rest of the World (in million euros and per cent), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 42 Change in exports by region (in per cent), 2027 benchmark, 20 per cent direct spill-overs
- Table 43 Regression estimates for NTMs and FDI
- Table A1 Mapping of Model Sectors to GTAP
- Table A2 Mapping of Model Sectors to ISIC rev 3.1
- Table A3 Annualized GDP growth rates
- Table A4 HS-2 Classification, top 2 per cent of tariff lines