Update  on  the  Human  Costs  of  War  for  Afghanistan  and  Pakistan,     2001  to  mid-­‐‑2016       Neta  C.  Crawford1   Boston  University       July  29,  2016     Afghanistan   and   Pakistan   have   been   engaged   in   their   current   wars   for   nearly   15   years,   and   the   cost   in   human   lives   and   health   has   been   enormous:   the   combined   death  toll  is  173,000  dead  and  more  than  183,000  seriously  wounded.  The  wars  in   Afghanistan   and   Pakistan   remain   interrelated,   not   least   because   the   border   is   porous   between   the   two   countries,   but   also   because   the   United   States   has   put   resources   into   the   fighting   on   both   sides   of   that   border.     On   6   July   2016,   U.S.   President   Barack   Obama   announced   that   the   planned   reductions   of   U.S.   troops   in   Afghanistan  would  be  delayed.    He  said,  "I  strongly  believe  that  it  is  in  our  national   security   interest,   especially   after   all   the   blood   and   treasure   we’ve   invested   in   Afghanistan   over   the   years,   that   we   give   our   Afghan   partners   the   very   best   opportunity  to  succeed."2  The  war  has  cost  the  United  States  more  than  $800  billion   in   direct   appropriations   to   the   State   Department   and   Department   of   Defense.3     As   the  Costs  of  War  project  has  documented,  there  are  many  other  economic  costs  in   the  US,  Afghanistan  and  Pakistan.4         This   paper   focuses   on   the   wars’   deaths   and   injuries.     Over   the   past   nearly   15   years,   approximately   111,000   people   have   been   killed   and   more   than   116,000   people  have  been  injured  in  the  war  in  Afghanistan.    Of  these,  more  than  31,000  of   the  dead  are  Afghan  civilians.    The  war  in  Pakistan,  which  began  as  Al  Qaeda  and  the   Taliban   fled   from   Afghanistan   into   the   northwest   region   of   Pakistan   in   2001,   has   caused   almost   62,000   deaths   and   an   additional   67,000   injuries.   These   numbers   are   approximations  based  on  the  reporting  of  several  sources.  The  focus  in  this  report  is  on   direct   deaths   and   injuries   caused   by   wartime   violence.   Indirect   deaths,   due   to   the   effects   of   war   damage   to   infrastructure   and   livelihoods,   and   usually   more   numerous   than  direct  deaths,  are  discussed  elsewhere.5     This   short   update   summarizes   the   pattern   of   killing   since   2001,   with   an   emphasis  on  the  most  recent  years.  In  May  2015,  the  Costs  of  War  Project  estimated   the   combined   death   toll   in   the   Afghanistan-­‐‑Pakistan   conflict   zone   due   to   direct   violence   to   be   149,000   people.6  Since   that   report,   the   intensity   of   the   war   in   each   1   country   has   changed:   in   Afghanistan,   the   war   is   becoming   more   intense,   and   continues   to   kill   many   Afghan   civilians;   in   Pakistan,   violence,   especially   toward   civilians,  diminished  in  2015.         Although  it  is  premature  to  conclude  that  2016  will  be  more  violent  than  2015  in   both   countries,   figures   from   the   first   6   months   of   2016   suggest   that   the   trend   in   increased   death   and   injury   continues   in   Afghanistan,   and   that   after   a   lull   in   2015,   Pakistan  has  become  increasingly  violent  in  the  first  half  of  2016.     The  Human  Toll  in  Afghanistan     Although   the   US   government   plans   to   complete   the   withdrawal   of   its   forces   as   the   war   winds   down,   the   war   in   Afghanistan   is   arguably   as   intense   as   ever,   especially   in   the   South,   near   the   border   with   Pakistan,   and   the   Obama   Administration   has   recently   reduced   the   pace   of   US   withdrawal.     In   its   Quarterly   Report   to   the   US   Congress   in   late   April   2016,   the   Special   Inspector   General   for   Afghanistan   Reconstruction   (SIGAR)   noted   what   Afghans   themselves   have   highlighted:   the   security   situation   has   deteriorated.     The   Afghan   government   controlled  70.5  percent  of  the  country  according  to  that  report.    About  23  percent  of   the   territory   was   contested   or   "at   risk",   and   about   6   percent   is   controlled   by   the   Taliban  or  other  insurgents.7     In  its  next  Quarterly  Report,  released  on  30  July  2016,   SIGAR  acknowledged  that  the  area  under  Afghan  government  control  had  declined   by   about   5   percent. 8  Violence   occurs   even   in   the   areas   "controlled"   by   the   government.   For   example,   the   United   Nations   Office   for   the   Coordination   of   Humanitarian   Affairs   (OCHA)   documented   117,976   people   who   fled   their   homes,   newly   displaced,   in   Afghanistan   from   1   January   to   30   April   of   2016   in   24   of   34   provinces.9      In  this  context,  the  US  Director  of  National  Intelligence  James  Clapper   warned   that   2016   in   Afghanistan   will   see   "more   intense   fighting   .   .   .   continuing   a   decade  long  trend  of  deteriorating  security."10     The  data  detailed  here  show  that  in   the   past   ten   years,   the   violence   in   Afghanistan   has   in   fact   intensified,   rather   than   declined.       Afghan  Civilian  Death     More   than   31,000   civilians   have   been   killed   in   direct   violence   in   Afghanistan   since   the   7   October   2001   invasion   by   the   United   States.     But   this   number   is   necessarily   an   estimate,   since   there   were   long   periods   in   the   war   when   there   was   little  or  no  counting  of  civilians  killed  or  injured  as  a  consequence  of  the  fighting.     The   International   Security   Force   (ISAF)   established   the   Civilian   Casualty   Tracking  Cell  in  2008,  which  became  the  Civilian  Casualty  Mitigation  Team  in  2011.   ISAF   has   made   a   database   of   civilian   death   and   injury,   but   it   has   not   consistently   made  the  data  public.    The  data  is  released  to  soldiers  and  commanders  so  that  they   can   learn   from   incidents   where   civilians   have   been   harmed.11     In   2007,   when   the   war   began   to   intensify,   the   Human   Rights   arm   of   the   United   Nations   Assistance   Mission   in   Afghanistan   (UNAMA)   began   to   systematically   record   casualties   in   2   Afghanistan.    In  2008  UNAMA  began  to  publish,  summary  counts  and  analyses  of  the   civilians   killed   and   injured   in   Afghanistan's   war.     UNAMA   has   also   systematically   attempted   to   make   attributions   of   responsibility   for   the   deaths   and   injuries.   Other   non-­‐‑governmental   organizations   track   civilian   harm,   but   UNAMA   reports   are   the   most   comprehensive   data   on   the   impact   of   war   on   civilians   in   Afghanistan.12     UNAMA   endeavors   to   investigate   every   incident   and   is   also   largely   transparent   about   its   reports’   methods.   UNAMA   acknowledges   uncertainty   and   that   they   "may   be   under-­‐‑reporting   civilian   casualties   given   limitations   inherent   in   the   operating   environment."13  UNAMA  excludes  in  its  count  of  casualties  the  individuals  for  whom   their  combatant/non-­‐‑combatant  status  is  uncertain.14         Figure   1.   Number   of   Civilians   Killed   in   Afghanistan   from   2001   to   through   201515     3,701   3,133   2,792   2,375   2,118   2,769   3,545   2,969   2,412   1,582   929   400   450   230   413   2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015       In   2007,   UNAMA   reported   that   41   percent   of   the   direct   violent   civilian   deaths   in   Afghanistan   could   be   attributed   to   pro-­‐‑government   forces;   that   percentage   gradually   declined   to   a   low   of   12   percent   in   2012   and   2013.   Recently,   however,   that   trend   has   reversed.   The   percentage   of   civilians   killed   by   pro-­‐‑government   forces   (including  international  and  Afghan  security  forces)  increased  to  16  and  18  percent,   respectively,   in   2014   and   2015.   Moreover,   as   fighting   intensifies,   it   is   increasingly   difficult  to  say  who  has  killed  the  persons  confirmed  as  civilians,  as  we  can  see  by   the   greater   share   of   civilian   casualties   for   which   the   UNAMA   is   unable   to   make   an   attribution.     In   2008,   about   6   percent   of   civilian   deaths   were   not   attributed   to   a   party   to   the   conflict;   in   2015,   UNAMA   could   not   make   an   attribution   in   about   14   percent  of  the  civilian  deaths.  Since  2007,  the  majority  of  civilians  killed  and  injured   in  Afghanistan  are  the  victims  of  insurgents  or  militant  forces.             3   Figure  2.  UNAMA  Attribution  of  Civilian  Death  from  2007-­‐‑201516     4,000   414 3,000   406 326 130 2,000   194 1,000   828 629 700   1,160   306 265 519 429 324 493 610 305 621 354 573 1,533   2,208   2,037   2,180   2,677   2,310   2,315   -­‐‑ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 undetermined/other Pro-­‐‑Government  (International  and  Afghan  Forces) 2014 2015 Anti-­‐‑Government     Figure  3.  Patterns  of  Civilian  Killing  in  Afghanistan,  2009-­‐‑201517       1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2009 2010 2011 Ground  Engagements Suicide  and  Complex  Attack Explosive  Remnant  of  War Cross  Border  Shelling  from  Pakistan 2012 2013 2014 IED Targeted  Killing  by  AGE Aerial  Operations  by  PGF 2015     The  number  and  proportion  of  civilians  killed  by  ground  engagement  is  growing,   as  is  the  number  of  people  killed  by  unexploded  ordinance,  the  "explosive  remnants   of   war."     In   2014,   124   civilians   were   killed   by   ERW;   in   2015,   that   number   had   more   than   tripled,   to   431   civilians   killed   by   ERW.18     Many   of   the   explosive   remnants   of   war   date   back   to   the   Soviet   war   in   Afghanistan.     The   Mine   Action   Coordination   Centre  of  Afghanistan  (MACCA)  notes  that  a  "new  challenge"  has  recently  emerged:   the   firing   ranges   used   by   NATO/ISAF   during   their   training   operations.   After   the   trainings   the   explosive   remnants   of   heavy   weapons   remain   on   the   ground   in   the   firing   ranges,   endangering   surrounding   communities.   "From   2009   to   December   2014,  MACCA  recorded  130  casualties  resulting  from  ERW  incidents  in  these  firing     4   ranges."19     In   early   2016,   MACCA   identified,   in   total,   more   than   4,000   mine/ERW   hazards  of  all  types  that  need  to  be  removed  before  they  cause  harm.20     In  the  late  2000s,  when  air  strikes  were  killing  an  increasing  number  of  civilians,   the   UN   and   other   humanitarian   organizations   urged   ISAF   to   change   their   rules   of   engagement.   More   restrictive   rules   for   close   air   support   strikes   resulted   in   a   decrease   in   the   number   of   civilians   killed   in   airstrikes,   per   year,   starting   in   mid-­‐‑ 2009.    UNAMA  notes  that  these  gains  made  in  curtailing  injury  and  death  were  not   maintained  in  2015.  The  UN  attributed  1,766  civilian  deaths  to  aerial  operations  by   Pro-­‐‑Government  forces  from  2008  to  2015  out  of  a  total  of  4,258  deaths  attributed   to   Pro-­‐‑Government   forces.     Some   of   the   increase   in   civilian   death   in   2015   may   be   due  to  the  fact  that  Afghans  are  now  flying  more  of  their  own  missions,  and  may  be   using   less   stringent   rules   of   engagement   and   more   "dumb",   unguided,   gravity   bombs.21       Figure   4.   Afghan   Civilian   Deaths   Due   to   Aerial   Operations   and   All   Other   Pro-­‐‑ Government  Operations22     900 800 700 276 600 500 214 400 300 258 552 200 332 359 100 2009 232 472 171 187 125 122 101 149 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 2008 199 509 PGF  Aerial  Operations All  other  PGF  Operations     Afghan  Civilian  Injuries     More   than   40,000   Afghan   civilians   have   been   seriously   injured   since   the   US   invasion   in   2001,   although   the   number   is   difficult   to   know   with   any   precision.   UNAMA  counts  more  than  40,900  Afghan  civilian  injuries  since  January  2009.23                     5   Figure  5.  Afghan  Civilians  Killed  and  Injured  from  2009-­‐‑201524     8,000   Civilians  Killed  and  Injured 7,000   6,000   5,000   4,000   3,000   2,000   1,000   -­‐‑ 2009 2010 2011 2012 Injured 2013 Killed 2014 2015     Traumatic   amputations   constitute   a   significant   burden   of   the   war   for   Afghan   civilians.    Of  the  more  than  9,200  new  patients  that  the  International  Committee  of   the  Red  Cross  registered  in  2015  for  limb  fitting  and  physical  rehabilitation,  1,261   were   amputees.     The   Red   Cross   also   assisted   more   than   1,600   people   with   spinal   cord   injuries   in   2015.25     In   2015   Handicap   International   assisted   more   than   7,000   new   patients.   Of   those,   about   20   percent   —   1,400   people   —   had   lower   limb   amputations   that   were   "a   result   of   land   mines,   improvised   explosive   devices   and   other  weapons."26         Combatant  Death  and  Injury  in  Afghanistan     The   United   States   has   reduced   its   armed   forces   in   Afghanistan   since   May   2014   from  33,000  to  9,800,  but  despite  the  drawdown,  22  US  soldiers  other  Department   of  Defense  (DOD)  personnel  have  died  since  January  2015.           All  told,  over  the  course  of  the  war,  2,371  US  military  and  DOD  civilian  personnel   have  been  killed  in  Afghanistan  and  "other  locations"  associated  with  the  war.27  In   addition,  than  1,100  allied  troops  have  been  killed  in  the  war,  with  the  British  forces   comprising  the  largest  share  of  those  losses.28     U.S.  fatalities  could  have  been  much  higher.    The  introduction  of  body  armor  for   all   soldiers,   and   Kevlar   helmets   may   have   saved   many   lives.29     Advances   in   battlefield   medicine,   and   the   reduction   in   evacuation   times,   have   led   to   higher   survival   rates   of   wounded   soldiers   who   would   have   otherwise   have   likely   died   in   the   field.   For   example,   traumatic   amputations   have,   in   previous   eras,   often   led   to   death.   Of   the   more   than   20,000   U.S.   soldiers   who   were   injured   from   2001   to   mid   2015,  833  had  major  limb  amputations.30   6     Afghan  military,  police  and  other  security  forces  have  grown  in  number.  Afghan   forces   thus   bear   an   increasing   share   of   the   combat,   and   are   now   more   exposed   to   militant  attacks.  Insurgents  are  killing  Afghan  National  Army  and  Police  in  growing   numbers,   with   international   forces   suffering   fewer   casualties   as   Afghans   take   the   lead  in  fighting.     Contractors   continue   to   work   for   the   US   in   Afghanistan   and   perform   functions   that  the  US  and  allied  military  have  traditionally  performed.    The  US  Department  of   Labor  (DOL)  reports  deaths  and  sick  days.  Catherine  Lutz  of  Brown  University  and   the  Costs  of  War  has  reported  that  civilian  contractors  who  are  not  US  citizens  are   often  not  counted  in  the  DOL  statistics  on  contractor  deaths.  This  year,  the  Costs  of   War   project   reports   two   categories   of   contractor   deaths   —   the   DOL   number   and   Lutz's   estimate   of   the   additional   number   of   contractors   killed   who   were   not   reported   in   the   DOL   statistics.   Lutz   estimates   that   in   addition   to   the   total   number   of   more  than  1,600  contractors  killed  identified  by  the  DOL,31  nearly  1,900  additional   contractors  were  killed  from  2001-­‐‑2015.32     There   are   no   reliable   sources   for   the   number   of   militants   killed   since   2001.   In   my   previous   report,   I   estimated   that   approximately   35,000   Taliban   and   other   militants   had   been   killed   between   2001   and   2014.     Last   year,   press   reports   chronicled  the  deaths  of  hundreds  of  militants  in  Afghanistan.  And  this  year,  the  U.S.   announced  that  it  had  killed  the  head  of  the  Taliban,  Mullah  Mansur  in  May  2016.33   But  the  press  does  not  regularly  report  on  insurgent  fatalities,  injuries,  and  arrests.   The   Afghan   Ministry   of   Defense   (MOD),   on   the   other   hand,   reports   the   number   of   militants   killed,   wounded   and   arrested   in   individual   press   releases.     Adding   the   numbers   in   2015,   the   MOD   reported   more   than   7,137   insurgents   killed,   about   4,000   wounded,  and  an  additional  758  insurgents  were  reported  to  have  been   arrested.  In   some   press   releases,   the   reports   use   phrases   like   "numbers"   killed   or   "dozens"   wounded:  in  those  cases,  I  count  3  for  "numbers"  and  24  for  "dozens".    Adding  those   numbers,   perhaps   as   many   as   7,212   insurgents   were   killed,   and   4,397   were   wounded   by   the   Afghan   military   in   2015.34     Phrases   like   "numbers"   or   "dozens"   raise   flags   about   the   veracity,   or   at   least   precision   of   Afghan   MOD   press   releases.     The  Afghan  military  has  an  incentive  to  inflate  the  numbers  of  insurgents  they  kill   and  injure.    Further,  some  of  the  people  the  Afghan  MOD  reports  as  militants  killed   may  be  civilians  since  UNAMA  reports  civilians  killed  by  Afghan  security  forces,  but   the  Afghan  Ministry  of  Defense  press  releases  do  not  include  harm  to  civilians.                     7   Figure  6.  Coalition  Military  and  Afghan  Security  Force  Deaths,  2001-­‐‑201535     8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US  and  Coalition  Military Afghan  Military  and  Police     The   US   estimated   the   total   insurgent   force   in   Afghanistan   in   early   2016   was   between  20,000  and  40,000  fighters.36    More  recently,  the  US  has  acknowledged  that   militant  forces  were  resurgent  in  some  parts  of  Afghanistan.37     In  2008,  there  were   an   estimated   5,000-­‐‑20,000   Taliban   and   an   additional   2,000   other   militants   in   Afghanistan.38     In   2005,   there   were   an   estimated   2,000-­‐‑10,000   fighters   in   the   Taliban.39     If   42,000   militants   have   been   killed   and   at   least   19,000   wounded   since   2001,   and   the   United   States   estimates   that   there   are   between   20,000   and   40,000   militants   in   2016,   then   the   earlier   estimates   of   the   strength   of   the   Taliban   and   associated  fighters  were  quite  wrong,  and/or  the  insurgency  is  growing  faster  than   militants   can   be   killed,   wounded   or   captured.40     It   is   also   possible   that   some   of   people  the  US  and  Afghan  forces  have  described  as  insurgents  killed  and  wounded   are  actually  civilians.     Humanitarian  Workers  and  Journalists  Killed     Those  who  try  to  help  the  people  affected  by  the  war  have  also  been  targeted  for   violent   attacks   and   intimidation.   The   ICRC   recorded   a   50   percent   increase   in   the   number  of  violent  incidents  affecting  hospital  staff  and  facilities  in  2015.41    Since  the   start   of   the   war,   382   humanitarian   workers   have   been   killed   (45   of   those   deaths   occurred   last   year)   and   299   humanitarian   workers   have   been   injured   in   Afghanistan.42     By  contrast,  according  to  the  Committee  to  Protect  Journalists  (CPJ),   that   profession   appears   to   be   in   a   less   precarious   position.   The   CPJ   found   that   in   2014,  three  journalists  were  killed,  where  the  motive  could  be  confirmed,  while  they   found   that   no   journalists   were   killed   for   confirmed   motives   in   2015.43     Costs   of   War   uses  the  CPJ  count,  but  there  are  other  sources  that  record  different  numbers.    An   Afghan   monitoring   organization   found   that   Afghan   journalists   faced   continued   "violence,  threats,  and  intimidation"  from  mid  March  2015  to  mid  March  2016,  and   records   10   deaths   in   that   year.44  The   United   Nations   Educational,   Scientific,   and   Cultural   Organization,   which   includes   both   domestic   and   international   journalists   8   and  their  interpreters,  counts  32  journalists  killed  in  Afghanistan  from  2005  to  mid   2016  —  ten  of  these  killings  occurred  in  2016  alone.45       Displacement  and  Indirect  Harm     Afghanistan   has   received   more   than   100,000   Pakistanis   fleeing   a   military   operation   that   began   in   North   Waziristan   in   June   2014.   In   June   2016   Afghanistan   had   1.4   million   refugees   inside   its   borders,   and   nearly   1   million   Afghans   were   internally   displaced.   An   additional   2.6   million   Afghans   are   currently   refugees   in   more   than   70   countries.     The   largest   number   of   Afghan   refugees   are   living   in   Pakistan  (1.5  million  people),  and  Iran  (nearly  a  million  people).46         Further,   there   is   a   toll   in   indirect   death   and   illness   due   to   the   destruction   of   infrastructure  and  the  hardships  of  displacement.    For  instance,  when  the  Medecins   Sans   Frontieres   (MSF)   hospital   in   Kunduz   was   destroyed   by   international   forces   airstrike   on   3   October   2015,   not   only   were   medical   personnel   and   other   civilians   killed  and  injured,  but  the  hospital  itself  was  largely  destroyed  and  remains  closed.     The  Increasing  Lethality  of  the  Afghanistan  War  in  2016     The   Taliban   have   certainly   followed   up   on   their   threat   made   in   early   2016,   to   be   more   aggressive.47  They   have   continued   to   attack   vulnerable   civilians   and   police   recruits.   Indeed,   the   most   recent   reports   by   UNAMA   indicate   that   violence   is   growing   in   Afghanistan,   with   antigovernment   forces   killing   the   majority   of   civilians.     In   the   first   quarter   of   2016,   compared   to   the   same   period   in   2015,   there   was   an   overall  2  percent  increase  in  the  total  number  of  civilians  killed  and  injured.48     Summary  of  Deaths  and  Injuries  in  Afghanistan   Table  1.  Estimate  of  Afghans  Killed  and  Injured  Directly  in  War,  2001-­‐‑  2016     Killed   Wounded*     Afghan  Civilians  2001-­‐‑2015   29,818    37,412     Afghan  Civilians  Jan-­‐‑June  2016   1,601   3,565   Afghan  Military  and  Police    30,470      17,000     Taliban  and  Other  Militants    42,100      19,000     US  Forces  (through  26  July  2016)    2,371      20,179     US  Allies  (through  26  July  2016)    3,800**      1,136     Contractors  Reported  by  US  DOL    1,650      15,348     Unreported  Contractor  Estimate   1,890   unknown   NGO  Humanitarian  Workers    382      299     Journalists    24     unknown   Total    111,442      116,603     *Incomplete     **Only  including  UK,  Canadian,  French  and  German  wounded,  through  2014   9   The  Human  Toll  in  Pakistan     Pakistan   remains   a   hot,   albeit   underreported,   war   zone.   It   is   underreported   partially  because  the  news  media  have  been  targeted  for  killings  by  both  militants   and   security   forces,   and   because   the   Pakistani   government   controls   journalists'   access.     Thus,   observers   often   do   not   agree   on   the   basic   indicators   of   the   war,   including   a   disagreement   on   the   number   of   journalists   killed   in   Pakistan.     The   Committee   to   Protect   Journalists   counts   53   journalists   killed   in   Pakistan   since   2001.49  UNESCO  counts  58  journalists  killed  from  2001  to  mid  2016.50       Despite   uncertainty   and   opacity,   the   total   number   of   people   killed   in   2015   in   Pakistan  was  lower  than  in  any  single  previous  year  since  2007.  I  estimate  that  the   war  in  Pakistan,  which  began  as  Al  Qaeda  and  the  Taliban  fled  from  Afghanistan  into   the  northwest  region  of  Pakistan  in  2001,  has  directly  caused  about  62,000  violent   deaths  and  an  additional  67,000  injuries  from  2001  through  2015.    The  downward   trend   in   civilian   death   in   Pakistan   during   2015   is   evident   in   a   number   of   areas,   including   US   drone   strikes,   militant   suicide   attacks,   and   Pakistani   military   operations.  However,  in  early  2016,  the  lethality  of  the  war  was  on  the  rise.     US  Drone  Strikes     The  US  targeted  killing  counterterrorism  strike  program  remains  largely  secret,   even   after   the   1   July   2016   release   of   summary   data   from   the   U.S.   Director   of   National   Intelligence.     The   U.S.   figures   for   all   deaths   in   U.S.   counterterrorism   strikes   for   20   January   2009   to   31   December   2015   in   areas   "outside   active   hostilities"   —   which  includes  all  drone  strikes  in  Pakistan,  Yemen,  and  Somalia  —  totaled  2,372  –   2,581   combatants   and   64   to   116   noncombatants.     These   figures   were   not   disaggregated   by   individual   war   zones   and   the   Obama   administration   acknowledged  that  their  numbers  for  all  noncombatant  deaths  in  counterterrorism   strikes   were   lower   than   non-­‐‑governmental   assessments,   because,   they   said,   they   have   access   to   "information   that   is   generally   unavailable   to   nongovernmental   organizations."51     It   is   possible,   however,   using   open   non-­‐‑governmental   sources,   to   assess   the   general  trends,  although  there  is  continuing  disagreement  among  these  sources.  For   instance,   the   annual   number   of   drone   strikes   conducted   by   the   US   in   Pakistan   has   declined.   Nearly   all   observers   conclude   that   the   US   killed   many   fewer   people   by   drone   strikes   in   2015   than   in   2014.   The   sources   estimate   of   the   total   individuals   killed   range   between   about   2,700   and   3,500.   Sources   also   vary   widely   in   their   estimate   of   the   number   of   civilians   killed   in   the   strikes.   Not   including   the   recently   released   Obama   administration   figures   which   does   not   disaggregate   by   war   zone,   the   lowest   estimate   of   civilians   killed   by   US   drone   strikes   in   Pakistan   through   2015,   made  by  the  conservative  Long  War  Journal,  is  158  civilians.    By  contrast,  Pakistan   Body   Count   reports   in   excess   of   2,600   civilians   killed   of   the   more   than   3,500   people   it  estimates  have  been  killed  by  drones.     10   Table   2.   Estimates   of   the   Number   of   Civilians   Killed   by   Drone   Strikes   in   Pakistan  through  201552   Total  Number   Civilians   of  People   %  Civilians     Source   Killed   Killed   Killed   TBIJ  Min   417   2,708   15%   TBIJ  MAX   960   3,922   24%   LWJ   158   2,948   5%   NAF  High     315   3,045   10%   PBC  Max   2,657   3,548   75%     Sources:   TBIJ:   The   Bureau   of   Investigative   Journalism;   LWJ:   Long   War   Journal;   NAF:   New  America  Foundation;  PBC:  Pakistan  Body  Count.   Militant  Suicide  Attacks  on  Civilians     Militant   activity   decreased   overall   in   Pakistan   during   2015.   Specifically,   both   South   Asia   Terrorism   Portal   (SATP)   and   Pakistan   Body   Count   (PBC)   find   that   militants  conducted  fewer  suicide  attacks  in  2015  than  at  any  time  since  2006.       Figure  7.  SATP  and  PBC  Counts  of  Militant  Suicide  Attacks  2002  -­‐‑  1  July  201653     100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SATP PBC     However,   it  may   be   that   the   number   of   attacks   will   be   higher   in   2016   than   2015   if  the  pace  of  activity  in  the  first  few  months  of  2016  is  an  indication.    It  also  appears   that   the   numbers   killed   and   injured   in   suicide   attacks   have   been   declining   for   a   number  of  years,  although  again,  if  the  pattern  established  in  the  first  six  months  of   2016  holds,  there  will  be  a  rise  in  the  number  of  people  killed  and  injured  in  suicide   attacks  in  2016  as  compared  to  2014  and  2015.       11   Figure   8.   Number   of   People   Killed   and   Injured   in   Militant   Suicide   Attacks,   in   Pakistan,  2002-­‐‑June  201654     2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 killed Injured       Pakistani  Operations  that  Harm  Civilians     Thousands   of   civilians   have   been   killed   by   the   Pakistani   military,   paramilitary   and   police   forces   during   "operational   attacks"   to   kill   and   capture   militants.   But,   although   the   Pakistani   military   has   continued   to   search   for   and   attack   militants   in   the   northwest   region   of   Pakistan,   the   number   of   civilians   injured   and   killed   in   these   operational  attacks  declined  in  2015.         Figure  9.  Civilian  Casualties  in  Attacks  by  Pakistani  Forces,  2007-­‐‑201555     7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Killed  in  Operational  Attacks 2012 2013 2014 2015 Injured  in  Operational  Attacks     Pakistani  military  operational  attacks  also  cause  civilians  to  flee  their  homes  or   become   internally   displaced.     For   example,   on   15   June   2014,   Pakistan   began   an   offensive  against  militants,  its  Operation  Zarb  e-­‐‑Azb.  In  December  2015,  Lt.  General   12   Asim   Bajwa   of   the   Pakistani   military   claimed   that   his   forces   had   killed   3,400   militants   after   18   months   of   this   operation.56     Operation   Zarb   e-­‐‑Azb   also   caused   many   Pakistanis   to   flee   North   Waziristan   and   even   after   operations   were   suspended,   it   was   difficult   for   Pakistani   civilians   to   return   to   their   homes.   Al  Jazeera   reported  that  of  the  approximately  1  million  people  displaced  by  Operation  Zarb  e   Azb   since   June   2014,   most   had   been   unable   to   return   by   June   2015,   despite   government  promises  that  the  area  had  been  cleared  of  militants.57     US  Support  of  Pakistani  Military  Spending     While  the  US  is  not  directly  involved  in  the  majority  of  the  fighting  in  Pakistan,   the  US  has  trained  Pakistani  military  forces,  subsidized  its  war  against  militants,  and   reimbursed   Pakistan   for   its   support   of   US   operations   in   Afghanistan.     The   US   has   provided  Pakistan  about  $22  billion  since  2001  in  Coalition  Support  Funds,  a  form  of   reimbursement   for   Pakistan's   assistance   in   the   war   in   Afghanistan,   and   military   assistance.     But   the   portion   of   Pakistani   military   spending   that   comes   from   US   military  assistance  and  coalition  support  funds  has  declined  in  the  past  two  years.     Figure   10.   Trends   in   Percent   of   Pakistan's   Military   Budget   from   U.S.   Military   Aid  and  Reimbursement,  2001-­‐‑201558     50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percent  of  Pakistan's  Miltary  Budget  from  US  Military  Aid  and  CSF     The   US   also   uses   contractors   in   Pakistan.     Catherine   Lutz   estimates   that   in   addition  to  the  total  number  of  more  than  42  contractors  killed  in  Pakistan  reported   by  the  US  DOL,  48  additional  contractors  were  killed  from  2001-­‐‑2015.59     Displacement  and  Indirect  Harm     Although  the  war  in  Pakistan  was  less  intense  during  2015,  there  were  nearly  a   million  people  internally  displaced  in  early  2016.    In  addition,  Pakistan  was  home  to   more  than  1.5  million  Afghan  refugees  in  early  2016.60     I  have  made  no  estimate  of   the  number  of  civilians  who  were  killed  indirectly  by  the  war,  although  that  number   is  likely  larger  than  those  killed  directly.   13   Summary  of  Deaths  and  Injuries  in  Pakistan     Table   3.   Estimated   Total   Direct   Death   and   Injury   in   Pakistan,   2001-­‐‑   June   201661   Killed   Wounded    Pakistani  Civilians    22,100      40,792     Pakistani  Security  Forces    8,214      14,583     Taliban  and  Other  Militants    31,000      11,415     Contractors  Reported  by  US  DOL     42    134     Unreported  Contractor  Estimate   48   unknown   NGO  Humanitarian  Workers    92      87     Journalists    53     unknown   Total    61,549    67,011       Conclusion       We   have   much   more   to   do   to   understand   the   human   toll   of   the   long   wars   in   Afghanistan   and   Pakistan   and   their   interrelationship.     There   are   gaps   in   the   counting   of   casualties,   and   likely   some   manipulation   of   the   official   reports   of   the   numbers  killed  and  injured.  For  instance,  although  UNAMA  reports  that  the  Afghan   National   Army   has   killed   and   wounded   civilians   in   its   operations,   the   Ministry   of   Defense   in   Afghanistan   reports   insurgents   killed   and   wounded   in   operations,   but   does   not   release   reports   of   the   number   of   civilians   killed.     Nor   does   the   Afghan   Ministry  of  Defense  note  the  numbers  of  their  own  forces  wounded  in  their  attacks   on  militants.    Further,  the  US  still  does  not  report  its  drone  strikes  in  Pakistan,  nor   provide   detailed   information   about   the   process   of   the   strikes,   estimates   of   civilian   casualties,  or  analysis  of  the  effects  of  the  strikes  on   surviving   civilians.    Further,  we   still   know   too   little   about   the   indirect   effects   of   the   wars   on   long-­‐‑term   health   and   welfare.62     Despite   these   areas   of   uncertainty,   there   is   no   disputing   the   fact   that   the   wars   in   Afghanistan   and   Pakistan   continue   to   be   devastating   for   civilians.   After   nearly   fifteen   years   of   war,   the   combined   death   toll   in   the   Afghanistan   and   Pakistan   war   zone   is   nearly   173,000   dead   and   more   than   183,000   seriously   wounded.     The   first   6   months   of   2016   indicate   that   there   is   as   much   or   more   war   related   violence   in   Afghanistan   as   in   2015.   And,   unfortunately,   unless   the   fighting   in   Afghanistan   diminishes,   the   increased   intensity   of   fighting   in   Afghanistan   will   likely   spill   over   into  Pakistan.               14   Endnotes     1 Neta C. Crawford is Professor of Political Science at Boston University and Co-Director of the Costs of War project. 2 Obama quoted in Ryan, M., & DeYoung, K. (2016, July 6). Obama Alters Afghanistan Exit Plan Once More, Will Leave 8,400 Troops. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com 3 These are the amounts appropriated by the Congress to the Departments of State and Defense since 2001. Additional economic costs of this war are associated with additional Pentagon and Homeland Security spending, the costs of caring for veterans, and interest on borrowing to pay for the war. 4 See the following Costs of War papers on economic costs to the U.S.: Crawford, N.C. (2014, June 25). US Costs of Wars Through 2014: $4.4 Trillion and Counting: Summary of Costs for the U.S. Wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2014/US%20Costs%20of%20Wars%20through %202014.pdf; Garrett-Peltier, H. (2011, June 13). The Job Opportunity Cost of War. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2011/Job%20Opportunity%20Cost%20of%20W ar.pdf; Lattanzi-Silveus, L. (2015, January 1). Costs of the Was in Afghanistan and Iraq for the State of Rhode Island. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2015/Costs%20of%20the%20Wars%20in%20A fghanistan%20and%20Iraq%20for%20the%20State%20of%20Rhode%20Island.pdf; Smith, B. (2015, January 3). The Cost of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans’ Care to Texas. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2015/The%20Cost%20of%20Iraq%20and%20A fghanistan%20Veterans'%20Care%20to%20Texas.pdf 5 See Crawford, N.C. (2015, May 22). War Related Death, Injury and Displacement in Afghanistan and Pakistan 2001-2014. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2015/War%20Related%20Casualties%20Afgha nistan%20and%20Pakistan%202001-2014%20FIN.pdf; Crawford, N.C. (2011, September). Civilian Death and Injury in Afghanistan, 2001-2011. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2011/Civilian%20Death%20and%20Injury%20i n%20Afghanistan,%202001-2011.pdf 6 See Crawford, N.C. (2015, May 22). War Related Death, Injury and Displacement in Afghanistan and Pakistan 2001-2014. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2015/War%20Related%20Casualties%20Afgha nistan%20and%20Pakistan%202001-2014%20FIN.pdf 7 United States Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). (2016, April 30). Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, p. 95. Retrieved from https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2016-04-30qr.pdf 8 United States Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). (2016, July 30). Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, p, 86. Retrieved from https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2016-07-30qr.pdf 9 United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). (2016, May 15). Afghanistan: Conflict Induced Displacements. Retrieved from https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/system/files/documents/files/afg_conflict_idps_2016_jan_apr_s napshot_20160515.pdf 10 Clapper, J.R. (2016, February 9). Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, p. 26. Retrieved from https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/SASC_Unclassified_2016_ATA_SFR_FINAL.pdf 11 For a history and analysis of the ISAF data see Keene, J. (2014). Civilian Harm Tracking: Analysis of ISAF Efforts in Afghanistan. New York, NY: Center for Civilians in Conflict; Bohannon, J. (2011, March). Counting the Dead in Afghanistan. Science, 331, 1256-1260. 12 Others who track harm to civilians in Afghanistan include Handicap International, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and Human Rights Watch. 13 UNAMA. (2016, February). Afghanistan Annual Report 2015: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, p. ii. Kabul: Author 14 "Where UNAMA is not satisfied with information concerning an incident, it will not be considered 15   verified nor will unverified incidents be reported… Where information is unclear, conclusions will not be drawn until more satisfactory evidence is obtained, or the case will be closed without conclusion and will not be included in the statistical reporting. In some incidents, the civilian status of the reported victims cannot be conclusively established or is disputed. In such cases, UNAMA is guided by the applicable norms of international humanitarian law and does not presume fighting-age males are either civilians or fighters. Rather, such claims are assessed and documented based upon the facts available on the incident in question." UNAMA. (2016, February). Afghanistan Annual Report 2015: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, p. i. Kabul: Author. See the discussion of Methodology in each UNAMA Annual Report. 15 Methods for my estimate for 2001-2007 are described in Crawford, N.C. (2011, September). Civilian Death and Injury in Afghanistan, 2001-2011. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2011/Civilian%20Death%20and%20Injury%20i n%20Afghanistan,%202001-2011.pdf I use UNAMA data for 2008-2015. 16 Source: UNAMA. (2008-2015). Afghanistan Annual Report: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. Retrieved from http://unama.unmissions.org/protection-of-civilians-reports 17 Source: UNAMA. (2008-2015). Afghanistan Annual Report: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. Retrieved from http://unama.unmissions.org/protection-of-civilians-reports 18 Source: UNAMA. (2008-2015). Afghanistan Annual Report: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. Retrieved from http://unama.unmissions.org/protection-of-civilians-reports 19 Mine Action Coordination Centre of Afghanistan. (2015). Annual Report: 1393 (April 2014 –March 2015) p. 10. Retrieved from http://www.macca.org.af/macca/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/MAPA-AnnualReport-1393.pdf 20 Mine Action Coordination Centre of Afghanistan. (2016). Fast Facts: January to March 2016 (1394 fourth quarter). Retrieved from http://www.macca.org.af/macca/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/MAPA-FastFacts-Mar-2016.pdf 21 Lamothe, D. (2015, December 2). As U.S. Air War over Afghanistan Shrinks, a Tug-of-war for Afghan Aircraft. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/; Lamothe, D. (2016, February 17). The U.S.-funded Afghan Air Force is Growing. So are Civilian Casualties it Causes. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/. Also see UNAMA (2016, July). Midyear Report, 2016: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, pp.76-77. Kabul: Author. 22 UNAMA. (2008-2015). Afghanistan Annual Report: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. Retrieved from http://unama.unmissions.org/protection-of-civilians-reports 23 My estimate for 2001-2007 of the total killed injured is based on my previous estimate for the number of civilians killed. See Crawford, N.C. (2011, September). Civilian Death and Injury in Afghanistan, 20012011. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2011/Civilian%20Death%20and%20Injury%20i n%20Afghanistan,%202001-2011.pdf; UNAMA. (2009-2015). Afghanistan Annual Report: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. Retrieved from http://unama.unmissions.org/protection-of-civilians-reports 24 UNAMA data for 2009-2015 from UNAMA. (2016, February). Afghanistan Annual Report 2015: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, p. 1. Kabul: Author; UNAMA (2016, July). Midyear Report, 2016: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, p. 1. Kabul: Author. 25 International Committee of the Red Cross. (2016, January 30). Afghanistan: Thousands received lifesaving assistance in 2015. International Committee of the Red Cross. Retrieved from https://www.icrc.org/ 26 Handicap International. (2016). Afghanistan: Helping Victims of Weapons and IEDs. Handicap International. Retrieved from http://www.handicap-international.us 27 U.S. Department of Defense. (2016). Casualty. Retrieved from http://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf 28 See Iraq Coalition Casualty Count. (2009). Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation Enduring Freedom/Afghanistan. Retrieved from http://icasualties.org/ 29 For a summary, see Fazal, T. M. (2014). Dead Wrong? Battle Deaths, Military Medicine, and Exaggerated Reports of War's Demise. International Security, 39(1), 95-125. 30 Fischer, H. (2015, August 7). A Guide to U.S. Military Casualty Statistics: Operation Freedom's Sentinel, Operation Inherent Resolve, Operation New Dawn, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Operation Enduring Freedom. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RS22452.pdf 31 US Department of Labor. (2016). Defense Base Act Case Summary by Nation. Retrieved from www.dol.gov/owcp/dlhwc/dbaallnation.htm 16   32 Lutz estimates the number of additional contractor deaths by comparing the percentage of foreign contractors working for the US military in the warzone with the much lower percentage of foreign contractors among the reported dead. 33 U.S. Department of Defense. (2016). Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook on U.S. Airstrike Against Taliban Leader Mullah Mansur [Press release]. Retrieved from http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/778259/statement-by-pentagonpress-secretary-peter-cook-on-us-airstrike-against-taliba 34 Calculated from 185 Afghanistan Ministry of Defense press releases from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2015. Retrieved from http://mod.gov.af/en/blog/ 35 Sources: Defense Casualty Analysis System. (2016). Overseas Contingency Operations (OEF, OIF, OND, OIR & OFS Combined). Retrieved from https://www.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/pages/casualties_gwt_combined.xhtml; U.S. Department of Defense. (2016). Casualty. Retrieved from http://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf. For coalition members killed, see icasualties, Iraq Coalition Casualty Count. (2009). Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation Enduring Freedom/Afghanistan. Retrieved from http://icasualties.org/. For Afghan numbers see: Livingston, I.S., & O'Hanlon, M. (2016). Afghanistan Index, Figure 1.17, p. 12. Brookings. Retrieved from http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Programs/foreign-policy/afghanistan-index/index20160330.pdf?la=en 36 Votel, J.L. (2016, March 9). Advance Questions for General Joseph L. Votel, U.S. Army Nominee for Commander, U. S. Central Command, p. 6. Retrieved from http://www.armedservices.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Votel_03-09-16.pdf 37 Craig, T. (2016, April 8). U.S. Troops are Back in Restive Afghan Province, A Year After Withdrawal. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/ 38 Tyson, A.S. (2006, June 15). A Sober Assessment of Afghanistan. The Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/ 39 Aizenman, N.C. (2005, June 22). Fighting a Hard, Half-Forgotten War. The Washington Post. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/ 40 On underestimation, see Roggio, B., & Joscelyn, T. (2016, April 13). US Military Admits al Qaeda is Stronger in Afghanistan than Previously Estimated. The Long War Journal. Retrieved from http://www.longwarjournal.org/ 41 Maurer, P. (2016, May 3). Even Wars Have Limits: Healthcare Workers and Facilities Must be Protected. International Committee of the Red Cross. Retrieved from https://www.icrc.org/ 42 The Aid Worker Security Database. (2016). Security Incident Data. Retrieved from https://aidworkersecurity.org/incidents/search?start=2001&end=2016&detail=1&country=AF 43 Killed, motive confirmed. Committee to Protect Journalists. (2016). 29 Journalists Killed in Afghanistan since 1992/Motive Confirmed. Retrieved from https://cpj.org/killed/asia/afghanistan/ 44 Afghanistan Journalists Center Report cited in Kine, P. (2016, March 18). Dispatches: Afghanistan Journalist's Worsening Perils. Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/ 45 UNESCO. (1998-2016). UNESCO Condemns the Killing of Journalists: Afghanistan. Retrieved from http://www.unesco.org/new/en/communication-and-information/freedom-of-expression/pressfreedom/unesco-condemns-killing-of-journalists/countries/afghanistan/ 46 UNHCR. (2016). UNHCR Doubles Grant for Registered Afghan Refugees Opting to Return to Afghanistan [Press release]. Retrieved from http://unhcrpk.org/unhcr-doubles-grant-for-registered-afghanrefugees-opting-to-return-to-afghanistan/; UNHCR. (2016). Afghan Solutions Strategy. Retrieved from http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/afghan-solutions-strategy.html; UNHCR. (2016). Population Statistics. Retrieved from http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/persons_of_concern 47 Mackenzie, J. (2016, April 12). Taliban Announce Start of Spring Offensive in Afghanistan. Reuters. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/ 48 UNAMA. (2016, April 17). UN Chief in Afghanistan: Do More Now to Protect Civilians – UNAMA releases Civilian Casualty Data for the First Quarter of 2016. UNAMA. Retrieved from http://unama.unmissions.org/ 49 Committee to Protect Journalists. (2016). 58 Journalists Killed in Pakistan since 1992/Motive Confirmed. Retrieved from http://cpj.org/killed/asia/pakistan/ 50 UNESCO. (1997-2016). UNESCO Condemns the Killing of Journalists: Pakistan. Retrieved from http://www.unesco.org/new/en/communication-and-information/freedom-of-expression/pressfreedom/unesco-condemns-killing-of-journalists/countries/pakistan/ 17   51 U.S. Director of National Intelligence. (2016, July 1). Summary of Information Regarding U.S. Counterterrorism Strikes Outside Areas of Active Hostilities, p. 2. Retrieved from https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2938258/Airstrike-Death-Toll.pdf 52 Sources: The Bureau of Investigative Journalism. (2014, November 26). All Estimated Casualties in Pakistan by Year. Retrieved from http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/AllTotals-Dash67.jpg; Roggio, B. (2016). Charting the data for US airstrikes in Pakistan, 2004-2016. Retrieved from http://www.longwarjournal.org/pakistan-strikes/; International Security. (2016). Drone Wars Pakistan: Analysis. Retrieved from http://securitydata.newamerica.net/drones/pakistan-analysis.html; Pakistan Body Count. (2015). Pakistan Body Count. Retrieved from http://www.pakistanbodycount.org/ 53 Sources: South Asia Terrorism Portal. (2016). Fidayeen (Suicide Squad) Attacks in Pakistan. Retrieved from http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/Fidayeenattack.htm; Pakistan Body Count. (2015). Pakistan Body Count. Retrieved from http://www.pakistanbodycount.org/ 54 Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal. (2016). Fidayeen (Suicide Squad) Attacks in Pakistan. Retrieved from http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/Fidayeenattack.htm 55 Source: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS). (2008-2015). Pakistan Security Reports. Retrieved from http://pakpips.com/securityreport.php 56 Web Desk. (2015, December 12). 3,400 militants killed in Operation Zarb-e-Azb. The Express Tribune. Retrieved from http://tribune.com.pk/ 57 Kakakhel, F., & Farooq. U. (2015, June 15). Pakistan's War and Loss of Hope for Those Displaced. Al Jazeera. Retrieved from http://www.aljazeera.com/ 58 Sources: US spending: Kronstadt, K.A., & Epstein, S. (2016, February 24). Direct Overt US Aid Appropriations for and Military Reimbursement to Pakistan, FY2000-FY2017. Retrieved from https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf; Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2016). SIPRI Military Expenditure Database: Pakistan's military budget; Pakistani Military Spending. Retrieved from http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database. In constant dollars. The table is illustrative: US fiscal years and the Pakistani military budget run on different cycles. 59 US Department of Labor. (2016). Defense Base Act Case Summary by Nation. Retrieved from www.dol.gov/owcp/dlhwc/dbaallnation.htm 60 UNHCR. (2016, April). Factsheet Pakistan. Retrieved from http://unhcrpk.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/12/UNHCR-Pakistan-Fact-sheet-April-20161.pdf 61 Sources: For Pakistani Civilians, Militants, and Security Forces: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS). (2008-2015). Pakistan Security Reports. Retrieved from http://pakpips.com/securityreport.php. This data is mostly consistent with: South Asia Terrorism Portal. (2016). Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2016. Retrieved from http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm. SATP estimates nearly 33,000 militants killed; PIPS estimates about 29,000 militants killed. For Contractors, through June 2015: US Department of Labor. (2016). Defense Base Act Case Summary by Nation. Retrieved from www.dol.gov/owcp/dlhwc/dbaallnation.htm. For aid workers: The Aid Worker Security Database. (2016). Security Incident Data. Retrieved from https://aidworkersecurity.org/incidents/search?start=2001&end=2016&detail=0&country=PK. For Journalists: Committee to Protect Journalists. (2016). 58 Journalists Killed in Pakistan since 1992/Motive Confirmed. Retrieved from http://cpj.org/killed/asia/pakistan/ 62 See Crawford, N.C. (2011, June). Assessing the Human Toll of the Post-9/ 11 Wars: The Dead and Wounded in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan, 2001-2011. Retrieved from http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2011/Assessing%20the%20Human%20Toll%20 of%20the%20Post911%20Wars.pdf 18